Inferential Analysis and Forecasting
Code
711041068
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas
Department
Geografia e Planeamento Regional
Credits
6
Teacher in charge
Jorge Ricardo Ferreira
Weekly hours
4
Teaching language
Portuguese
Objectives
a) To examine the theoretical foundations of statistical inference and prospective analysis;
b) To know methods and techniques of statistical inference and prospective analysis in geography selecting the appropriate methods to solve daily problems;
c) To plan the development and implementation of surveys;
d) To implement software for statistical analysis to spatial data resulting from field work;
e) To develop an attitude of accuracy and precision in applying the methods and techniques;
f) To apply, with critical thinking, knowledge to real-world scenarios and adapt knowledge to new situations;
g) To interpret the parametric and nonparametric tests resulting from the processing of spatial data;
h) To recognize limitations of inferential analysis and prospective view when confronted with the dynamics of society and territory.
Prerequisites
None.
Subject matter
(1) Introduction to inferential analysis and foresight - Objectives and general concepts for the analysis of geographic phenomena. (2) Samples and populations - the theory of sampling and errors in the assessment of demographic dynamics. (3) Estimation of a parameter - the hypothesis tests, standard error, confidence intervals and types of associated errors. (4) Surveys - differentiation of concepts and methodologies when applied to different territorial scales, types of investigation, spatial referencing of the investigation; launch the investigation, control and validation of the investigation. (5) Planning a survey for territorial analysis and planning and foresight in planning. (6) Introduction to statistical analysis software for processing and editing of spatial data (physical and human). (7) Parametric and nonparametric tests. (8) Models to test geographic predictions.
Bibliography
PESTANA, Maria, Gageiro, João, Análise de dados para Ciências Sociais, A complementaridade do SPSS, Lisboa, 5ª edição, Edições Silabo, 2008, pp. 99-210, 311-336.
REIS, Elizabeth, Estatística Aplicada, Vol. 1, Lisboa, Edições Sílabo, 2007, pp. 159-355.
D´HAINAUT, Louis, Conceitos e Métodos da Estatística, Uma Variável a uma Dimensão, Vol. 1, Tradução António Rodrigues Lopes, Serviço de Educação, Lisboa, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, 1997, pp.17-26.
WALFORD, Nigel, Geographical Data Analysis, Chichester, Wiley, 1995.
WALFORD, Nigel, Geographical Data: Characteristics and Sources, Chichester, Wiley, 2002, pp. 290.
Teaching method
Lectures and participatory (Theoretical and practical in the same proportion - 50%).
Evaluation method
The reading of selected bibliography and knowledge about a statistical software package for geographic analysis. The contents will be evaluated by: an exame (weighting of 70% of final grade) plus a second moment of evaluation (weighting of 30%). These percentages could vary depending on the student statute and will be communicated at Moodle platform.