Demographic Forecasting
Code
711081067
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas
Department
Sociologia
Credits
6
Weekly hours
4
Teaching language
Portuguese
Objectives
1. Understanding the principles of work using technical tools supported in a prospective epistemology;
2. Demonstrate ability to anticipate demographic prospects (population size and composition by sex and age) crossing projection techniques with trend analysis;
3. Demonstrate a basic knowledge and understanding of methodologies for prospective demographic scenarios;
4. Demonstrate ability to built prospective demographic scenarios;
5. Demonstrate ability to communicate procedures and results of prospective demographic analysis;
6. Development of skills to the support the definition, implementation and monitoring of public policies for strategic planning.
Prerequisites
Subject matter
1. Introduction
1.1. Prospective thinking
1.2. Demographic projections as planning tool
2. Base scenarios
2.1. Mortality
2.2. Stationary and stable populations
3. Emerging scenarios
3.1. The component method for cohorts
3.2. Application to the Portuguese situation
4. Demographic trends and related social challenges
Bibliography
Antunes, M.A. (2010), Projecções demográficas: Aplicação de um Modelo Demo-Informático na Guiné-Bissau. Lisboa: CPES.
Carrilho, M.J. (2005). Metodologias de cálculo das projeções demográficas: aplicação em Portugal. Revista de Estudos Demográficos (37), pp. 5-24.
Chaunu, P. & Renard, J. (2003). Essai de prospective démographique. Paris: Fayard.
Coale, A. & Demeny, P (1966). Regional model life tables and stable populations. Princeton: Academic Press.
INE (2008). Projeções de população residente em Portugal 2008-2060. Lisboa: INE.
Mendes, M.F. & Rosa, M.J.V., Projeções 2030 e o futuro. Lisboa: FFMS.
Rosa, M.J.V. (2000). População portuguesa até 2020: Cenários demográficos principais e derivados, in Barreto, A. (org.) A situação social em Portugal 1960-1999, vol. II. Lisboa: ICS, pp. 577-610.
Stover, J. & Kirmeyer, S. (2005). DemProj - Versión 4. Washington: Futures Group.
Weeks, J. (2002). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. EUA: Wadsworth Group.
Teaching method
Teaching method:
- 1 lesson weekly (2 h) with a expositive profile, about theoretical material with teaching argumentation and
presentation and discussion of texts, and demonstrative exercises.
- 1 lesson weekly (2 h) with a practical profile, including the resolution of practical exercises.
The annual distribution of time between expositive and practical lessons is equivalent, and students presence is mandatory.
Evaluation method
Method of evaluation:
Individual written test about the entiresyllabus topics (worth 50%) and individual or work group on a choosen subject (worth 50%), with mandatory oral discussion. In general, the profile of these essays corresponds to a scientific article.