Systems Modelling
Code
7820
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
Department
Departamento de Matemática
Credits
6.0
Teacher in charge
Ruy Araújo da Costa
Weekly hours
4
Teaching language
Português
Objectives
The Operational Research approach to problems involves several steps. The first step includes a modelling phase – modelling a system and/or a process. This phase requires imagination, conceptualization ability and uses knowledge from different areas, like Statistics, Probabilities and Computing.
This course intends to increase the skill of coordinating knowledge in different areas and help students to learn how to model processes and systems. Classes will take place in computational laboratories and, whenever possible, Excel spreadsheet will be used to solve case studies. Students will have the opportunity to create procedures using the Visual Basic module in Excel spreadsheets.
If necessary, the case study subjects will be introduced. Afterwards, the students will have a limited time to write a small report describing the different techniques used in the case study resolutions and main results. Finally, different approaches will be presented. The case study will also be analysed in the global framework of Operational Research.
Prerequisites
Students should have a basic knowlwdge in O.R.. It is important that a student has some proficiency in working with worksheets.
Subject matter
1 – Introduction to Processes and Systems Modelling
2 – Case Studies:
2.1 – Introduction to Heuristics: the knapsack problem.
2.2 – Optimization with constraints – Lagrange multipliers.
2.3 – Characterization of the dependence relation between consecutive values in a time series.
2.4 – Introduction to the Extreme Values Statistics - Gumbel distribution.
2.5 – Poisson Processes Modelling.
2.6 – Queuing Theory: additivity of Poisson processes.
2.7 – Inventory Management – discounts policies and budget constraints.
2.8 – Forecasting – Models with trend and seasonality.
2.9 – Markov Chains – Equipment Maintenance Policies.
2.10 – Simulation.
2.11 – Reliability.
2.12 – Project Management.
Bibliography
| 1. |
How to Model It - Problem Solving in the Computer Age (1990), Starfield,A; Smith,K. e Bleloch,A. - Mc Graw Hill Int. |
| 2. |
Strategies for Creative Problem Solving (1994), Fogler,H.S.;LeBlanc,S.E - Prentice Hall. |
| 3. |
Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences (1988), Siegel,S. Castellan Jr.,N. - Mc Graw Hill Int.. |
4. Excel 2007 - Data Analysis and Business Modelling (2007), Winston,W - Microsoft Press
Teaching method
Classes will take place in computational laboratories and the e-learning platform Moodle will be used.
In each lesson students receive a small case study and, sometimes, a file with data.
When necessary, the general subject of the case study is presented in the beginning of the lesson.
Students are divided in small groups, each group is assigned to a computer, and have 60 to 90 minutes to write a small report describing the techniques used in the resolution of the case study, and results obtained. Each group sends its report to teachers through Moodle.
Afterwards, each group presents its approach, and in the end all the strategies and results are object of discussion. Afterwards, the teacher will present one (or several) possible resolutions, and the case study is analysed in the global framework of Operational Research.
Finally, students are encouraged to do homework involving extensions of the studied problem. Homework should be sent to teachers through Moodle.
In Midterm, students will carry out a Group Assignment that will consolidate knowledge acquired through the case studies.
Each student will also be assessed in two Tests.
Evaluation method
I – General Aspects
1 – Any detected fraud implies failing in the course and a report to Directive Board.
2 – Until a week before the examination date, students should buy and deliver one “examination folio” on the Secretary of the Mathematics Department.
3 – Every student without “special status” must obtain Course Frequency before being admitted to examination.
II – Evaluation
Evaluation has 3 components: Case Studies, Group Assignment and Written Test/Exam.
1 – Case Studies: The best n individual grades are selected and averaged (CPF is the case study grade). n is the highest integer inferior or equal to 3/4 of the total case studies. Students with “Worker-Student status” can apply for a special case study that replaces the continuous evaluation case studies.
2 – Group Assignment: The assignment and data will be available in the beginning of November. Each group has 4 weeks to submit a report. The report will be object of a written discussion. The assignment grade (CTrab) is the average of report and discussion grades.
3 – Frequency: To obtain frequency, a student, without “special status”, should be present in, at least, 2/3 of lessons and the average between CPF and CTrab should be greater than to 9,5.
4 – Final Grade: Each student - with Frequency - will be evaluated in a written Test/Exam (180 minutes). In the “Regular Season” there will be one Test. In the “Appeal Season” there will be one Exam, for students who had failed in the “Regular Season”, or are trying to raise their previous grades. Let CE be the Test/Exam grade. A Student Fails if CE < 9,5.
If CEX >= 9,5 then the student passes the course and his final grade (CF) is the rounding of 0,2 CPF + 0, 4 CTrab + 0,4 CE.
5 – Raising Grades: A student that has passed the course, can apply for Raising grades in two ways: either raising his(her) Ctrab, or his(her) CE.
To raise his Examination grade, a student must be evaluated in a new examination. Let CEMelh be the grade of the new Examination. The Final Examination Grade (CEXFinal) will be CEFinal = Max(CE; CEXMelh).
To raise his Group Assignment grade, a student will be given an individual assignment, and has 4 weeks to submit a report. The Raising Assignment Grade CTrabMelh will replace previous Assignment Grade, CTrab
The Final Rasing Grade (CFMelh) will be:
CFMelh = 0,2 CPF + 0,4 CTrab + 0,4 CEFinal if the student applied to raise only the exam grade
CFMelh = 0,2 CPF + 0,4 CTrabMelh + 0,4 CE if the student applied to raise only the assignment grade
CFMelh = 0,2 CPF + 0,4 CTrabMelh + o,4 CEXFinal if the student applied to raise both grades.
The final grade will be Max(CF; CFMelh).