Decision Models
Code
7845
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
Department
Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
Credits
6.0
Teacher in charge
António Carlos Bárbara Grilo, Virgílio António Cruz Machado
Weekly hours
4
Teaching language
Português
Objectives
Decision making requires technical knowledge, logics, data and information to assess possible alternatives. This subject provides the student with the ability to make the "right" decison, using matemathical models, and considering eventual strategical aspects.
Subject matter
The decision process - the manager and the decision processes in industrial operations (finance, marketing, production, human resources, etc.); strategic and operational decisions; fundamentals of decision making; decision process phases; types of environment in decision making (certainty, risk and uncertainty); decisions in group.
Decision models - factors that affect the decision; classical and administrative models; decisions in deterministic situations and under uncertainty; tools and analytic methods used in decision making (decision tables, linear programming, statistical inference); output analysis (small and large changes); probability models.
Decision trees - decisions nodes, alternatives and states; selection and evaluation of alternatives; Bayes analysis in probability estimation; contingency plans; utility theory.
Multicriteria decision analysis - Decision making with multiple objectives (without uncertainty). Scoring models. Multiattribute utility function. Hierarquic analytical process.
Games theory in decision processes - cooperation and conflict; games language; mix strategies; dominance.Bibliography
· Decisions with multiple objectives, R. Keeney, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1993 · Investigação operacional, L. V. Tavares et al., McGraw Hill, 1996 · Operations management, J. Heizer e B. Render, 5 Ed., Prentice Hall, 1999 · Management Decision Making, George E. Monahan, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000 · Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Belton, V. & T. Stewart, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 2002; ISBN: 079237505X · Operations Research: aplications and algorythms, Wayne L. Winston, 3rd Ed., Duxbury Press, 1994 – Cap.14 · An introduction to management science, D. Andersen, D.Sweeney e T.Williams, Thomson, 2003 – Cap. 15 · Professor notes
Teaching method
Teaching method:
· Lectures;
· Discussion of case studies with students;
· Problem solving sessions;
· Team work;
· Presentation and discussion of team works;
· Assessment.
Evaluation method
Evaluation is based on 5 (team and individual) working projects
Final mark: average of assessment marks or exam