Methods of Foresight Analysis

Code

9787

Academic unit

Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Department

Departamento de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas

Credits

6.0

Teacher in charge

António Paulo Brandão Moniz de Jesus

Weekly hours

3

Total hours

92

Teaching language

Inglês

Subject matter

1. What is foresight analysis?
2. Innovation processes management and technological decision
3. Revision of the main used methods
   1. participative
      1. brainstorming
      2. futures workshops
   2. with experts
      1. Delphi
      2. SWOT
      3. scenarios
      4. roadmapping
   3. other methods
      1. extrapolation
      2. benchmarking
      3. scanning
      4. Morphological analysis
4. Simulation labs
   1. futures workshops
   2. SWOT
   3. Delphi method
   4. other methods

Bibliography

• The Futures Group (1994): ‘Scenarios’, Futures Research Methodology, AC/UNU Millennium Project.
• Georghiou, L et al, eds (2008), The Handbook of Technology Foresight. Concepts and practice, Cheltenham, E. Elgar.
• Glenn, Jerome C.; Gordon, Theodore J. (2002), 2002 The State of the Future, Washington, UNU.
• M Keenan, I Miles, Jari Koi-Ova 2003, Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight European Foundation, Dublin, available at http://www.eurofound.eu.int/transversal/foresight.htm and http://mbs.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/documents/ EFL_Handbook_April_2003.pdf
• Moniz, António B. (2006), Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal, Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, 2, IET, pp.105-116.
• NISTEP (2005): The Science and Technology Foresight Survey – Delphi Analysis, Tokyo, NISTEP Report Nº 97
• Popper R, Keenan M, Miles I, Butter M, Sainz de la Fuenta G (2007) Global Foresight Outlook 2007 EFMN Network at http://www.efmn.info/
• Shell International: Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, Global Business Environment, Shell International, 2003, 55 pp.
• Schwartz, Peter (1991) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday.
• Von Reibnitz, Ute (1988), Scenario Techniques. Germany: McGraw-Hill.

Teaching method

In lectures we will explain and discuss the sequence of points in the course program. In the last third of each lecture we will discuss, whenever possible, the resolution of a practical exercise whose solution requires applying the knowledge learned in the lecture. The teaching methods are varied and include: a) exposure, b) discussion and critical analysis of texts and audiovisual material, c) research and systematization of scientific information.

Evaluation method

The students evaluation is done continuously during the semester or only by examination. For the continuous evaluation the students must achieve the following aims:

a) seminar attainement

b) article review

c) report

The different weights for these evaluation elements is the following:

- attainement 30%

- review 20%

- report 50%

Courses

• Technology Assessment