Forecasting Analysis and Planning - 1st semester
Code
711071048
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas
Department
Estudos Políticos
Credits
6
Teacher in charge
Ana Isabel Xavier
Weekly hours
4
Teaching language
Portuguese
Objectives
a) Raise awareness and critical thinking on the emerging challenges of the Post Cold War, analyzing identities, interests, and political dynamics of regional and international factors that shape national and international stability;
b) Develop skills in prospective analysis methodologies;
c) Implement the conclusions of an analysis exercise to foresee scenarios and planning;
Prerequisites
None.
Subject matter
Topic 1 - Theory, concepts and models for analysis and complex regional and international security. From State Security to Human Security (Political, Societal, Economic and Environmental Security).
Topic 2 - Methodologies of prospective analysis: a) The concepts of match, forecast, projection or outlook b) The prospective attitude c) Future developments and guiding principles; d) Scenarios, prospective analysis and planning.
Topic 3 - Case Studies: USA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Russia and Asia, Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa; Role of regional and international organizations in the worldwide architecture (UN, NATO, European Union).
Topic 4 - Projections, prospective analysis, scenario building and planning working groups and preparation for individual critical essays.
Bibliography
New York: Palgrave Macmillan
Buzan, Barry & Weaver, Ole, 2003, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge: Cambridge University press.
Keohane, Robert O.; Nye, Joseph S.; Hoffmann, Stanley (eds), 1997 (1993), After the Cold War - International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe 1989-1991 (3rd edition). Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Salmon, Trevor C.; Imber, Mark F. (eds.), 2008 (2000), Issues in International Relations 2nd edition. Routledge: London & New York.
Vasconcelos, Álvaro de (ed.), 2012, ESPAS Report Global Trends 2030 - Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World. Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies. Available in http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/ESPAS_report_01.pdf.
Teaching method
Theoretical and practice methodologies. Presentation of theoretical concepts and methodologies, followed by exercises in the classroom and case studies application, essential to the preparation of the prospective exercise and scenario foresee.
Evaluation method
1. Attendance, punctuality and active participation in classes, based on discussion of the recommended bibliography (20%);
2. Working groups written report (2500- 3500 words) midterm evaluation (20%);
3. Class presentation based on the final working group report (20%);
4. Written individual critical essay, based on the seminar discussions, simulations and bibliography (2500- 3500 words). The paper must be submitted a week after the end of the semester - Final evaluation (40%)