Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Methods of Foresight Analysis

Code

9787

Academic unit

Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Department

Departamento de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas

Credits

6.0

Teacher in charge

António Paulo Brandão Moniz de Jesus

Weekly hours

3

Total hours

90

Teaching language

Português

Objectives

The program aims to develop knowledge of the prospective analysis (foresight) as one of the main methods of technology assessment.

Prerequisites

Capacity to access data bases and to statistical analysis

Good understanding of English written texts and capacity to integrate discussion groups in English

Availability to participate in simulation activities developed in the course unit.

Subject matter

  1. What is foresight analysis?
  2. Innovation processes management and technological decision
  3. Revision of the main used methods
    1. participative
      1. brainstorming
      2. futures workshops
    2. with experts
      1. Delphi
      2. SWOT
      3. scenarios
      4. roadmapping
    3. other methods
      1. extrapolation
      2. benchmarking
      3. scanning
      4. Morphological analysis
  4. Simulation labs
    1. futures workshops
    2. SWOT
    3. Delphi method
    4. other methods

Bibliography

Banse et al.(2011) On Prospective Technology Studies, KIT Scientific Publ
Futures Group (1994) Scenarios, Futures Research Methodology, AC/UNU Millennium Project
Georghiou et al. (2008), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, E. Elgar
Glenn, Gordon, (2002), 2002 The State of the Future, UNU
Keenan, Miles, Koi-Ova 2003, Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight EuroFound
Moniz (2006), Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process, Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, 2, 105-116
NISTEP (2005): The Science and Technology Foresight Survey – Delphi Analysis, Tokyo, NISTEP Report N 97
Popper et al. (2007) Global Foresight Outlook 2007 EFMN
Shell International: Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, 2003, 55 pp
Schwartz (1991) The Art of the Long View. Doubleday
Von Reibnitz (1988), Scenario Techniques McGraw-Hill

Teaching method

In lectures we will explain and discuss the sequence of points in the course program. In the last third of each lecture we will discuss, whenever possible, the resolution of a practical exercise whose solution requires applying the knowledge learned in the lecture. The teaching methods are varied and include: a) exposure, b) discussion and critical analysis of texts and audiovisual material, c) research and systematization of scientific information.

Evaluation method

The students evaluation is done continuously during the semester or only by examination. For the continuous evaluation the students must achieve the following aims:

a) seminar attainement

b) article review

c) report

The different weights for these evaluation elements is the following:

- attainement 30%

- review 20%

- report 50%

Courses