Decision Models
Code
7845
Academic unit
Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
Department
Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
Credits
6.0
Teacher in charge
António Carlos Bárbara Grilo, Helena Maria Lourenço Carvalho Remígio
Weekly hours
4
Total hours
56
Teaching language
Português
Objectives
At the end of this course, the student should get the knowledge and skills to:
1) Understand the phases of a decision process
2) Select the most adequate models to apply in specific situations
3) Define the criteria to adopt in uncertainty occasions
4) Evaluate alternatives and to propose the decision to take
Prerequisites
Students should have basic knowledge of Linear programming.
Subject matter
The manager and the decision processes in industrial operations; strategic and operational decisions; fundamentals of decision making; decision process phases; types of environment in decision making (certainty, risk and uncertainty); decisions in group.
Decision models: decisions in deterministic situations and under uncertainty; tools and analytic methods used in decision making (decision tables, linear programming, statistical inference); output analysis (small and large changes); probability models.
Decision trees: nodes, alternatives and states; selection and evaluation of alternatives; Bayes analysis in probability estimation; contingency plans; utility theory.
Decision making with multiple objectives. Multiattribute utility function. AHP. TOPSIS.
Monte Carlos Simulation and its application to investment decisions.
Bibliography
Applied Management Science: Modeling, Spreadsheet Analysis, and Communication for Decision Making, 2nd Edition by Lawrence, John A., Pasternack, Barry A. (2002)
This course has a web site with specific theoretical content and practical exercices.
Teaching method
Teaching method:
· Lectures;
· Discussion of case studies with students;
· Problem solving sessions;
· Team work;
· Presentation and discussion of team works;
· Assessment.
Evaluation method
Continous evaluation grounded on 2 tests and 1 assignment